Voluntary carbon markets were steady rather than spectacular this week. Carbon Pulse's daily coverage (July 6–7) noted continued resistance in Australia's ACCU market above A$38, with monthly volumes still running below 2025 levels, and fresh Verra issuance including 25,408 VCUs to Estonian developer Ecobase's European afforestation project. On policy, the European Parliament's environment committee voted to extend carbon-leakage protection to additional downstream sectors, while IETA's Asia Climate Summit in Hong Kong (July 7–9) drew roughly 800 delegates — a signal that APAC market infrastructure keeps building ahead of CORSIA's mandatory Phase 2 from 2027. Our indicative CXF US Gulf assessment stands at $21.50/t and CXF re-refining credits at $19.80/t (desk marks, updated July 7).
In base oils, the story remains supply. Lubes'N'Greases' Weekly Americas report (July 8) describes US posted prices up 33–73% since March, suppliers holding customers on allocation with spot offers suspended, and Middle East disruptions — including an extended outage at Shell's Pearl GTL plant in Qatar — removing Group III barrels that normally cover a large share of US demand. Most relevant to our market: blenders are substituting re-refined Group III wherever approvals allow, and re-refiners are reported effectively sold out. The US Gulf entered hurricane season with unusually low inventories, and meaningful new virgin capacity (Chevron's Pascagoula Group III+) is only due in Q4 2026.
Takeaway: for collectors and re-refiners this is a seller's market — feedstock secured now supports both premium base oil realizations and CXF credit generation; buyers should consider locking coverage before Q4 rather than waiting on new capacity.
Indicative desk marks — not financial advice. Current levels: CXF Price Index.