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Carbon & waste oil market intelligence

Weekly desk notes and analysis from the CarbonXFuture desk — prices, base oil supply, methodology and regulation. The same note lands in subscribers' inboxes every Monday: subscribe free.

Market report
Desk Note: EUAs Log Fourth Weekly Gain, SK Enmove Lifts Group III Postings 50¢/gal
European carbon posted a fourth straight weekly gain as Parliament's ETS draft landed, RGGI cleared at a record above $37, and SK Enmove raised Group II+ and Group III postings 50 cents a gallon from September 8.
September 14, 20263 min read
Market report
Desk Note: ICVCM Backs Verra V5, Motiva Lifts Group III Postings $1/gal
EUAs closed the week 1.8% higher at six-week highs, the ICVCM recognised Verra's VCS Version 5 and 13 methodologies, and Motiva lifted Group II+ and Group III postings $1.00 a gallon from September 1.
September 7, 20263 min read
Market report
Desk Note: ICE Delists Nature Futures, Group II Postings Rise Again
European carbon held its range on a 0.2% weekly gain, ICE Futures Europe pulled 11 nature-based contracts, and Excel Paralubes lifted Group II postings 30 cents a gallon from September 1.
August 31, 20263 min read
Market report
Waste Oil Recycling: The Fastest-Growing Slice of a $50 Billion Market
The recycling market grows from $4.29B (2026) to $7.13B by 2035 at 5.8% CAGR — faster than the waste oil market overall. Value is migrating from disposal to processing.
August 20264 min read
Market report
The $50 Billion Waste Oil Opportunity: Market Outlook to 2033
The global waste oil market grows from $36.2B (2026) to $49.9B by 2033 — yet 42.6% of waste oil is still landfilled. What the numbers mean for collectors, re-refiners and carbon markets.
August 20264 min read
Market report
Desk Note: EUAs Edge Up, Group III at All-Time Highs
EU allowances posted a 1% weekly gain, Germany pulled credits from suspect Chinese projects, and Group III base oils hit all-time highs with re-refiners sold out.
August 24, 20263 min read
Market report
Desk Note: EUAs Slip, Base Oil Postings Climb Again
European carbon fell 1.8% on the week in thin summer trade, while ExxonMobil and HF Sinclair lifted US base oil postings again and re-refiners stayed fully committed.
August 17, 20263 min read
Market report
Desk Note: EUAs Test a Breakout, Re-refiners Sold Out
EU allowances hit a nine-day high before fading, VCM issuance quality improves as supply shrinks, and US base oil postings rise again with re-refined barrels fully committed.
August 10, 20263 min read
Market report
Desk Note: Tight Base Oils, Steady Carbon
ACCUs stall above A$38 and Verra issuance ticks along, while Middle East outages keep US base oils on allocation and re-refiners effectively sold out.
July 13, 20263 min read
CXF Methodology
Introducing CXF: how waste oil recycling generates traceable carbon credits
Why the most overlooked stream in the circular economy deserves its own carbon standard — and how the CXF framework works, from evidence to serialized units.
July 20265 min read
Physical markets
How many carbon credits does a gallon of used oil generate? The CXF factors, explained
The CXF Quantification Methodology v1.0-draft stated plainly — collection 6.3 with strict eligibility, re-refining 0.60 to ≈1.3 on a displacement basis — and why every earlier figure was withdrawn.
July 20264 min read
Market report
How voluntary carbon credits are priced: a buyer's primer
Why one tonne of CO₂ trades at $9 and another at $31 — project type, vintage, co-benefits, integrity labels, and how to read an indicative price.
July 20266 min read
Regulation
ICVCM Core Carbon Principles: what institutional buyers need to know
The CCP framework in plain language — the ten principles, what the label changes in procurement, and where proprietary platform credits like CXF stand.
July 20266 min read
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