Carbon markets: European carbon absorbed a mid-week plunge and still closed the week 1.6% higher on technical support and bullish prompt power (Carbon Pulse Euro Markets, September 18); Monday drifted modestly lower as energy fell back on Middle East diplomacy (September 21). The benchmark closed Monday near €86.6/t (Trading Economics). Policy remains the driver: EU ambassadors failed to agree on halting MSR invalidation (September 16), the Irish presidency circulated a compromise text for another attempt this Wednesday (September 21), and rapporteur Peter Liese deleted the CORSIA exemption “inconsistency” from his draft (September 18). RGGI allowances traded just below $40 after the post-auction dip (September 21). On the voluntary side, the Climate Action Reserve adopted a modular mine methane protocol extending crediting beyond active US coal mines (September 21), Gold Standard launched a working group on corporate guidance for ongoing emissions (September 18), and SBTi confirmed its ongoing-emissions framework stays voluntary until 2035 (September 21). ACCUs closed Friday at A$38.25 (CORE Markets).
Waste oil and base oil: the Middle East shock deepened. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went off-line after September 11 drone attacks and Aramco suspended crude loadings at Yanbu; WTI October settled at $105.83/bbl on September 15, up from $93.03, before easing on reports of extra Saudi cargoes via Oman (Lubes'N'Greases Weekly Americas Base Oil Price Report, September 16). By Tuesday morning WTI had retreated to about $89 (Trading Economics). Gulf Coast low-sulfur diesel jumped to $4.95/gal on September 14 from $4.56. Price action moved to naphthenics: San Joaquin Refining lifted select light grades 50 cents/gal effective September 17. Group I and II remain tight, but post-summer demand is slowing and hurricane-season inventories are being released; spot export prices edged down. Group III stays critically short with Persian Gulf plants shut. Turnarounds ahead: Paulsboro Group I (five weeks, no spot until near year-end), Petro-Canada Group II (30 days, Mississauga), and Chevron trimming Group II at Pascagoula as Group III starts in October.
Takeaway: crude ran up nearly $13/bbl in a week and gave it all back in the next; base oil postings lag both ways. Collectors and re-refiners: diesel near $5/gal keeps vacuum gasoil pulled toward fuels and supports re-refined Group II values, so lock pay-for-oil terms before the crude retreat feeds into feedstock bids. Buyers: with Group II turnarounds stacking up in Q4, secure October contract volumes now and treat Asian spot offers as a reference, not as supply.
Our indicative CXF US Gulf assessment stands at $21.50/t and CXF re-refining credits at $19.90/t — desk marks, updated September 22, 2026, unchanged from last Monday's note. Our price-history database was unreachable this run, so no independent week-over-week series is quoted.
Indicative desk marks — not financial advice. Current levels: CXF Price Index.